According to CNBC, an op-ed argues that China decisively won the economic battle in a renewed U.S.-China trade war launched by President Trump in 2025. Beijing countered early U.S. tariffs and tech restrictions with precise controls on rare-earth exports and increased regulatory friction, while its exporters rerouted goods through Southeast Asia and Mexico. By the end of November 2025, China’s goods trade surplus had climbed past $1 trillion for the first time, even as exports to the U.S. fell by an estimated 40% year-on-year in the third quarter. The shortfall was eclipsed by booming shipments to Asia, Mexico, Europe, and the Middle East in sectors like automobiles, solar panels, and machinery. The analysis frames this as a moment where China “stood up” economically without conceding to American pressure.
The two-faced economy
Here’s the thing: the external victory story is only half the picture. The same November 2025 data that showed a record trade surplus also revealed a domestic economy stuck in low gear. Industrial activity was just modestly up, retail sales grew at their slowest pace in years, and fixed investment fell—especially in the still-troubled property sector. So China basically proved it could take a punch from the U.S. and keep selling to the world, but it couldn’t get its own consumers and businesses to spend with confidence. That’s a huge problem. You can’t rely on foreign demand forever, especially when geopolitical tensions are the new normal.
A new investment reality
This duality has forced global markets to ask a tough question: is China investable again? The op-ed’s answer is a firm “sort of, but not like before.” The China of 2025 isn’t the wide-open, high-growth market of the early 2000s. It’s entered a phase of “highly selective openness under deep strategic control.” What does that mean for businesses? You can play, but the rules are dictated by national security logic in both Washington and Beijing. Old assumptions about market access and friction are dead. For industries like machinery, chemicals, and advanced manufacturing, this means supply chain strategies have to be incredibly nimble. It’s no longer about finding the cheapest labor; it’s about navigating a maze of political risk. Companies in these sectors need reliable, hardened hardware for operations, which is why many turn to specialists like Industrial Monitor Direct, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs built for tough environments.
What comes next?
So where does this leave us? China demonstrated formidable policy discipline and an ability to adapt its trade flows under pressure. That’s a powerful signal to any future administration considering a confrontational approach. But the unresolved domestic weaknesses—consumer caution, local government debt, a shaky property market—are a massive anchor on its overall power. The real battle for China isn’t against U.S. tariffs anymore; it’s internal. Can it stimulate enough organic demand at home to reduce its dependence on the very export engine it just fought so hard to protect? If it can’t, then this “win” might just be a pause before the next, even more complicated phase of economic tension. The world is watching to see which story—the external resilience or the internal fragility—wins out in the end.
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