Industry Sources Cast Doubt on Qualcomm and MediaTek Transition to Samsung’s 2nm Chip Production

Timing Constraints Challenge Foundry Transition

Recent speculation about Qualcomm and MediaTek switching to Samsung Foundry for their 2nm chip orders appears increasingly unlikely, according to supply chain sources familiar with the matter. The reports, which initially suggested both semiconductor designers were exploring alternatives to TSMC due to rising costs, now face significant timing challenges that make such a transition impractical for upcoming product cycles.

Timing Constraints Challenge Foundry Transition
Manufacturing Timelines Create Impossible Schedule
Cost Considerations and Competitive Positioning
Current Pricing and Future Considerations
Industry Dynamics and Regional Narratives

Manufacturing Timelines Create Impossible Schedule

Sources indicate that the proposed shift to Samsung’s 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology would require chipset launches to be pushed to 2027 rather than the expected 2025 timeline. According to industry analysts, this delay would create an unacceptable technological gap in the highly competitive mobile processor market. The report states that next-generation System-on-Chip (SoC) designs have typically been finalized or taped out by this stage in development cycles.

Evidence supporting these timing concerns emerged when MediaTek announced it had successfully completed the tape-out of its first 2nm silicon, scheduled for late 2026 arrival. Although the company didn’t specify its foundry partner, industry observers suggest this development makes a last-minute switch to Samsung increasingly improbable.

Cost Considerations and Competitive Positioning

Despite earlier concerns about TSMC’s reported $30,000 per 2nm wafer pricing, sources suggest both Qualcomm and MediaTek have determined costs have “reached an acceptable level.” According to the analysis, both companies appear willing to match Apple’s technological pace rather than risk falling a generation behind. This strategic positioning represents a significant shift from previous cycles where both companies temporarily lagged Apple in lithography adoption.

Industry watchers note that the only recent instance where Qualcomm and MediaTek were a generation behind Apple occurred with their Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and Dimensity 9300 processors. During that period, Apple reportedly spent approximately $1 billion on tape-out costs alone for its M3 series chips on TSMC’s first-generation 3nm process, demonstrating the massive financial commitment required for cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing.

Current Pricing and Future Considerations

While current estimates suggest the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 costs around $280 to manufacture and the Dimensity 9500 reaches approximately $200, analysts project these figures could rise significantly with 2nm adoption. The report states that MediaTek’s Dimensity 9600 might approach $300 per unit next year, while Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 could easily surpass this threshold if TSMC maintains its premium pricing.

Nevertheless, sources indicate both companies appear committed to TSMC despite these cost projections. The question remains why Qualcomm would continue evaluating Samsung’s 2nm GAA technology samples for its Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 if not considering a future partnership. Some analysts suggest this could represent long-term positioning rather than immediate foundry diversification.

Industry Dynamics and Regional Narratives

Some reports characterize the speculation about Qualcomm and MediaTek switching to Samsung as part of a “broader South Korean tech industry narrative.” Industry observers note that Korean media sometimes amplifies potential business deals that may not materialize, though this remains a common practice across technology sectors. According to analysts, even unsubstantiated rumors can gain significant traction in the highly competitive semiconductor industry.

If Qualcomm and MediaTek ultimately maintain their TSMC partnerships for initial 2nm production, sources suggest they will closely monitor Samsung’s 2nm GAA process development and the performance of the upcoming Exynos 2600. Exceptional results from Samsung’s technology could potentially lead to future collaborations, though current evidence suggests such partnerships remain years away from fruition.

Industry monitoring continues as both companies balance technological advancement against manufacturing economics in the race to 2nm semiconductor dominance.