According to MacRumors, citing a new IDC report, Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup is pushing the company toward shipping over 247.4 million total iPhones in 2025, a 6.1% year-over-year increase. This demand, particularly in China where Apple now holds over a 20% market share, has turned a projected 1% decline there into 3% growth for the year. Apple’s total smartphone revenue is forecast to exceed $261 billion in 2025, growing 7.2%. CEO Tim Cook has already signaled expectations for an all-time revenue record this December quarter. However, IDC predicts a shift next year, as Apple plans to delay the lower-priced iPhone 18 until spring 2027, while launching the high-end iPhone Fold and iPhone 18 Pro in September 2026 as usual.
The China Factor and a Global Turnaround
Here’s the thing: the numbers from China are staggering. To go from potentially losing ground to absolutely dominating with a 20%-plus share in key months? That’s a phenomenal reversal. It basically saved Apple’s growth trajectory in what is its largest market. And it wasn’t just China. The report says this success story replicated in the US and Western Europe, regions that had previously been slowing down. So what’s driving it? The iPhone 17 seems to have hit a sweet spot. Maybe it’s the right mix of new AI features, a compelling design update, or just a strong upgrade cycle. Whatever it is, consumers are voting with their wallets, and it’s lifting Apple’s entire financial picture for the year.
The 2026 Slowdown: Why Apple Is Pumping the Brakes
Now, about that weird 2026 plan. Delaying the standard iPhone 18 by about six months is a huge gamble. IDC forecasts it’ll drop iOS shipments by 4.2% next year. So why would Apple do it? It could be a supply chain simplification move, or a strategy to better differentiate the Pro and non-Pro lines. But for users, it creates a confusing gap. Want a new, cheaper iPhone in fall 2026? Tough luck. You either spring for the ultra-expensive Fold or Pro models, or you wait. This could push some budget-conscious buyers to hold onto older iPhones longer or even look at Android alternatives in that window. It’s a deliberate disruption of their own annual rhythm.
A Perfect Storm of Supply Issues
And Apple’s unusual release schedule isn’t the only headwind. IDC is also warning about a global memory shortage leading to supply constraints and price increases across the entire smartphone market in 2026. This is where big industrial buyers and enterprises need to pay attention. When component shortages hit, they don’t just affect availability; they drive up costs for everyone. For a sector that relies on consistent hardware refresh cycles, that’s a real problem. It’s a reminder of how fragile these global supply chains still are. Combine this industry-wide crunch with Apple’s own staggered launch, and it’s no wonder IDC predicts total global smartphone shipments could decline 0.9% in 2026.
What It All Means for Everyone Else
So, for developers and accessory makers, 2025 looks like a boom year with a massive, active installed base. But they should prepare for a potential lull in new device growth in late 2026 and early 2027. For competitors, Apple’s 2025 strength is a daunting wall to climb, but that 2026 gap presents a rare opening. Can Android brands capitalize with compelling mid-range phones when the standard iPhone is absent? For the market overall, Apple’s sheer size means its decisions, like this release delay, can move the needle for worldwide shipment figures all by themselves. Basically, we’re seeing Apple at peak power in 2025, deliberately choosing to take a step back in 2026 to (presumably) leap further ahead later. It’s a high-stakes game of chess, not checkers.
