Solar Power Set to Dominate Global Energy Mix by Century’s End, Reports Indicate

Solar’s Rapid Ascent in Global Energy Markets

Solar electricity is accelerating at an unprecedented pace, with total generation capacity doubling between 2022 and 2024 to supply 7% of the world’s electricity, according to energy analysts. The first half of 2025 marked a historic turning point as wind and solar combined generated more power than coal for the first time, making renewables the world’s leading electricity source.

UK-based think tank Ember described this development as a “crucial turning point” in the global energy transition. Their analysis indicates solar power accounted for 83% of the total increase in the world’s electricity demand in 2025 and has been the largest source of new electricity globally for three consecutive years.

The Economics Driving Solar Expansion

The driving force behind solar’s rapid growth is its dramatically falling cost. Reports suggest solar has become the world’s lowest-cost electricity, with installation costs dropping by 90% over the past 15 years. Sam Stranks at the University of Cambridge noted that “right now, silicon panels themselves are the same cost as plywood,” making solar an increasingly accessible energy solution worldwide.

According to a 2021 report from Carbon Tracker, supplying all of the world’s energy needs with solar power would require approximately 450,000 square kilometers of land – just 0.3% of global land area. Kingsmill Bond, one of the report authors now at Ember, suggested that while there are land use “trade-offs,” most countries have sufficient space to deploy solar technologies.

Technological Advances and Efficiency Breakthroughs

The main limitation for current solar technology is efficiency. Standard silicon photovoltaic panels convert about 20% of the sun’s energy into electricity, compared to 90% for hydropower and 30-40% for fossil fuel plants. However, industry sources indicate that tandem silicon-perovskite cells, which introduce a second semiconductor, could reach 35-37% efficiency in commercial applications.

Stranks estimates that within 10 years, tandem panels will become the dominant market technology, producing 50% more power than current panels while appearing identical. This efficiency boost could unlock new applications, including solar roofs on electric vehicles that charge during daylight hours and discharge to homes in the evening.

Addressing Storage and Seasonal Challenges

The intermittent nature of solar power remains a significant challenge, particularly for countries with limited winter sunlight. Analysis suggests that for nations in the “sun belt,” including India, Mexico and many African countries, battery storage combined with solar is becoming increasingly cost-effective. BloombergNEF reportedly found lithium-ion battery costs dropped 40% in just the past two years.

Andrew Blakers at the Australian National University noted that for regions with long, dark winters, wind power can fill much of the gap, but interseasonal storage solutions will be necessary. “Batteries take care of the short term, pumped hydro takes care of the long term,” Blakers suggested, though such seasonal storage solutions remain in early development stages.

Political and Infrastructure Hurdles

Experts suggest that technical challenges may be easier to overcome than political and logistical barriers. Jenny Nelson at Imperial College London indicated that “the bottlenecks probably lie in politics, consistency in policy, regulation, vested interests of other industries.” Recent actions by the Trump administration in the US, including canceling a major Nevada solar project, demonstrate how policy can impact renewable deployment.

Grid infrastructure represents another significant challenge. Energy companies in the UK alone plan to spend £77 billion over five years to refit transmission networks for renewable integration. However, analysts note that lower-income nations with less comprehensive grid systems may actually have an advantage in building renewable-friendly infrastructure from the start.

The Path to Solar Dominance

Despite current challenges, energy market experts express confidence in solar’s long-term dominance. Bond estimates that by 2100, solar could generate up to 80% of the world’s electricity supply, with at least 80% of total energy demand electrified. The International Energy Agency reportedly predicts renewable power will more than double by 2030, though it may fall short of international tripling targets.

Blakers suggested that even determined opposition may not slow solar’s advance, noting that “it’s by far the quickest way to get large amounts of energy” to meet growing demand from sources like AI data centers. As Bond concluded: “We found this cheap, universal energy source – of course, we are going to figure it out.”

Sources: Ember Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025, Carbon Tracker Report, BloombergNEF Battery Cost Analysis

References

• https://ember-energy.org/…/
• https://www.ceb.cam.ac.uk/staff/professor-sam-stranks
• https://carbontracker.org/reports/the-skys-the-limit-solar-wind/
• https://www.kingsmillbond.com/
• https://profiles.imperial.ac.uk/jenny.nelson
• https://www.oxfordpv.com/press-releases/oxford-pv-solar-technology-patent
• https://www.energy-storage.news/…/
• https://iceds.anu.edu.au/people/academic-members/professor-andrew-blakers
• https://ember-energy.org/…/
• https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/
• https://www.iea.org/news/global-renewable-capacity-is-set-to-grow-strongly-dr…
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_panel
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_tank
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity

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