According to CNBC, Shopify’s stock is up about 50% year-to-date in 2025 and hit an all-time high in October. The company grew its Q3 revenue by 32% year-over-year and just posted its ninth straight quarter of double-digit free cash flow margins. In September, Shopify announced a collaboration with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, allowing its millions of merchants—including brands like Supreme and Mattel—to sell directly within the chatbot using Shop Pay. Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Citizens, and D.A. Davidson are bullish, with price targets ranging from $165 to $195, implying 16% to over 20% upside. However, referral traffic from OpenAI to platforms like Shopify is still in the low-single digits, and scaling this new “agentic” shopping experience remains the key challenge.
The AI Commerce Gold Rush
Here’s the thing: Shopify isn’t the only one trying to cash in on the AI shopping assistant trend. Etsy and Walmart also announced OpenAI partnerships in September and October, respectively. But Shopify’s move feels different, and analysts seem to think so too. They’re calling it “agentic commerce”—basically, the idea that an AI agent can handle the entire shopping journey, from discovery to checkout, without you ever leaving the chat window. Shopify’s early bet on building AI-facing storefronts alongside human-facing ones, starting with its Shopify Magic chatbot in 2023, is now looking pretty prescient. They organized their merchants’ data in a way that makes it easy for ChatGPT to “talk” to. That’s a huge technical moat. While others are just starting, Shopify’s already got the infrastructure in place.
Will People Actually Buy From A Chatbot?
The theory is solid, but the practice is still… emerging. The article points to real users, like health coach Marie Tuason, who used ChatGPT to find and buy protein bars from a Shopify merchant she’d never heard of. She rarely uses Google for shopping anymore. A study even found nearly a quarter of non-work ChatGPT queries are for information, including shopping. That’s a massive behavioral shift in the making. But there’s a big, glaring “but” here. Skepticism is healthy. Tuason herself double-checks the AI’s recommendations. Can ChatGPT always guarantee accurate product info or the best deal? Probably not yet. The current value might just be in narrowing down choices—a fancy, conversational filter. The dream of a fully autonomous AI shopper that you totally trust with your wallet? We’re not there. Not even close.
The Stock Story And The Scale Problem
So why are analysts so optimistic if this is all so early? Because Shopify’s core business is already firing on all cylinders. That 32% revenue growth and consistent cash flow isn’t AI hype; it’s real, existing momentum. The AI partnership is viewed as a potential accelerator on top of an already powerful engine. It’s a path to adapting to a changing internet. As Citizens analyst Andrew Boone said, they’re “clearly early on their S curve.” The stock targets reflect belief in that future scaling. But let’s be real: the biggest hurdle is in the numbers. OpenAI referral traffic is in the “low-single digits.” That’s tiny. The partnership’s success hinges entirely on changing user behavior at a massive scale. How quickly can they move from a cool demo used by early adopters to a fundamental part of how millions shop? That’s the billion-dollar question the stock price is now betting on.
